THE CIRCLE CHART
A Tool for Organized Thinking

Prepared by Wayne Davis

One problem-solving tool that has proven to be particularly effective for the preparation and conduct of negotiations is the "Circle Chart."

This tool divides the task of problem-solving into four modes of thinking:

I. The Problem: Identify the gap between disliked symptoms and a preferred situation. We begin by defining the problem as the gap between "what is" and "what might be." We can create two columns in Quadrant I of the Circle Chart. On the left, we can list aspects of the current situation that trouble us. Opposite each entry, we can list in the right-hand column elements of a preferred situation.

For example, if we are concerned about nuclear weapons, the "disliked symptoms" might include too many warheads, escalating race for new technology, proliferation to other countries and terrorists, uncertainty over first use policies, etc. The "preferred situation" would be fewer warheads, controlled pace of technological development, reduced risk of proliferation, greater certainty over first use policies. The purpose of the Circle Chart can be seen as helping us invent ways to close the gap between these two lists.

II. Diagnoses: Consider possible causal explanations. Next we consider what may be the causes underlying the disliked symptoms. At the outset, rather than deciding what is the single, most important cause, perhaps we could instead list those causes on which we realistically might have some significant effect.

Note that some diagnoses are more abstract than others. Our goal is to develop more specific diagnoses that will shed better light on possible prescriptive approaches. In this quest, more abstract diagnoses can stimulate more specific sub-diagnoses that prove helpful. For example, suppose we are working on "uncertainty over first use policies." One possible diagnosis is, "The U.S. Government does not trust the Soviet pledge of `no first use.'" Although possibly valid, this diagnosis leaves open the question why there is a lack of trust. Here we can dig further for sub-diagnoses, such as, "Many Americans are waiting to see if the rhetoric of perestroika will be matched in action;" "Neither American citizens or government officials have extensive personal relationships with Soviet citizens and officials," etc. Keep searching for a variety of causes, at a level of specificity that begins to suggest what might be done.

III. General Prescriptions: Devise general prescriptive approaches. We can now invent a wide variety of possible approaches that might solve the problem by dealing effectively with the causes we have identified. These approaches should be general, i.e., capable of being implemented in several different ways. For example, to deal with the diagnosis of Americans waiting to see if Soviet actions will match the rhetoric, one approach might be, "Create programs in which Americans can see the concrete achievements of perestroika." Another approach might be, "Help Americans to understand the difficulties involved in trying to restructure a society in accordance with one's political, economic, and social goals."

IV. Specific Action Ideas: Invent specific plans to implement the general approaches. Finally, we can examine each of the general prescriptive approaches and invent several specific action plans for implementation. For example, to implement the idea of helping Americans to understand the difficulties involved in restructuring a society, one might convene a conference of Soviet and American politicians and academics to discuss, "New Approaches to Reforming and Streamlining Bureaucracies."

Final Notes: The Circle Chart can be used by one individual or a group preparing for a negotiation, and can also be used by negotiators from both sides working together as joint problem-solvers.

Although these four steps are the logical order in which a problem could be analyzed and solved, the human mind often makes intuitive, non-linear leaps from one mode of thinking to another. The Circle Chart can help us keep track of those ideas: place them in the quadrant where they seem most appropriate, and then move backwards or forwards from that idea around the Circle Chart.

Occasionally, users of the Circle Chart may be uncertain about which Quadrant an idea should be placed. For example, "lack of trust" may be seen as a problem (Quadrant I), or a diagnosis (Quadrant II). The idea should be placed on the chart where it will be most useful: that is, where it stimulates other thoughts that help address the problem.