| "Hostage
seizures are frustrating because it is rarely possible
to effect a safe rescue of the hostages by means other
than negotiations with their captors. But negotiations
are politically difficult, because they risk the appearance
of negotiating to pay blackmail and thereby rewarding
the bad behavior. Partly for that reason, any kind of
'negotiations with the enemy' are often politically suspect.
These difficulties were compounded in the Iranian hostage
situation by the lack of a well-defined Iranian government
capable of effective action." - Bruce Patton |
The
Harvard Negotiation Project played a significant behind-the-scenes
role at various points during the Iranian hostage conflict
of 1979-81. HNP tools offered unique and penetrating insights
into the dynamics of the conflict and the requirements for
a resolution, and were used to help effect that resolution
in a variety of ways.
On
the day the U.S. Embassy in Tehran was seized by Iranian students,
the New York Times columnist Anthony Lewis asked Roger
Fisher how many hours he thought the seizure would continue.
Fisher, who with Bruce Patton and William Ury had just completed
a Currently Perceived Choice Chart
for the students and for the Ayatollah Khomeini, replied to
Lewis's astonishment that HNP's best guess was 11 months.
The reasoning was that the hostage seizure would help strengthen
Khomeini's hand against the secular Iranian government, that
a critical deadline and fading opportunity (and the Iranians'
best chance of an optimal deal) would be just before the U.S.
election in November 1980, and that the nearest analogue,
the 1967 North Korean seizure of the U.S. spy ship Pueblo,
had taken 11 months to resolve.
Soon
after, Fisher wrote an op-ed piece capturing this reasoning
for the New York Times entitled "Helping
the Iranians Change Their Mind." Meanwhile, one of
Fisher's LL.M. students introduced him to an Iranian physics
student whose brother had been appointed Khomeini's personal
representative in the United States. Shortly thereafter, the
brother called on a Friday afternoon asking if Fisher would
advise the Foreign Minister of Iran about his upcoming Sunday
morning appearance on Meet the Press. After checking that
the State Department had no objections, Fisher flew to Washington
for a conference call at the Iranian Embassy. Fisher's advice,
crafted at HNP, was "do not talk about putting the hostages
on trial, especially since many of them are people who hate
the Shah and transferred to Iran only after the Revolution.
If a trial is mentioned, talk about putting the United States
on trial for its actions in Iran, with these diplomats as
witnesses." Foreign Minister Ghobzadeh followed this
advice to the letter.
In
January 1980 the U.S. began to discuss imposing sanctions
on Iran, and Fisher published a "My Turn" piece
in Newsweek entitled "Sanctions
Won't Work." HNP's argument: Sanctions change the
question from "Can Iran coerce the United States through
the illegal detention of diplomats?" - a question that,
not surprisingly, evoked enormous sympathy from the world
diplomatic community and one to which United States controlled
the answer - to the question "Can the United States coerce
Iran into releasing these hostages?" - a question that
puts Iran in the driver's seat and thrusts the U.S. into a
role uncomfortably reminiscent for many foreigners of the
"bully" they were used to resenting. HNP argued
that President Carter made a mistake in saying he "wouldn't
leave the rose garden" until the hostages were released.
President Johnson's response to the Pueblo seizure seemed
wiser: He denounced the North Korean action as illegal, promised
all appropriate efforts to retrieve the crew, and said that
for the benefit of those efforts he would have no further
comment on the matter until it was resolved.
Fisher's
comments were noted in Iran and resulted in several requests
from different officials to facilitate productive communication
between the two governments. Fisher arranged a meeting with
Lloyd Cutler, President Carter's counsel. Cutler asked,*
"How do you negotiate with people who are crazy?"
Using a Currently Perceived Choice Chart
for a typical Iranian Student Leader, Fisher persuaded Cutler
that the students might not share U.S. values or perceptions,
but they were hardly crazy. (After all, they have insane asylums
in Iran, and no one was proposing the students be sent there.)
Cutler's response was understandably a little defensive: "Are
you saying that we should be doing something different?"
Fisher was reassuring, using another
Choice Chart, this time for President Carter. The Iranians
were telling the U.S. to do something "big and symbolic"
as a gesture to get negotiations moving. But the President
wisely understood that any such unilateral concession would
only lead to escalating demands. (In HNP parlance, Carter
was wise to avoid playing "Edward's Game.") Such
is the nature of a stalemate: each side is reasonably responding
to the situation as they see it by doing nothing.
At
this point, HNP began to work even harder to think through
the structure of a possible settlement. As always, the approach
was to imagine how both sides could announce a "success,"
and then work backwards to figure out how to create the conditions
for that. As part of this work, two
"victory" speeches were crafted, one for President
Carter, and one for the Ayatollah Khomeini. The critical requirement
was that these speeches not be fundamentally inconsistent.
Thereafter, we typed these short speech outlines on opposite
sides of a piece of paper, and would generate interest in
the HNP analysis by allowing people to read first one side
and then the other. Inevitably they would exclaim, "But
these both work. They're not inconsistent!" Exactly.
Some
weeks later, Fisher met with Cutler again. "I've persuaded
the State Department that we need to negotiate," Cutler
said. "Now we are discussing how much blackmail to pay.
What's your advice on that?" Predictably, Fisher responded
that the U.S. could not afford to pay any blackmail. "Great!"
said Cutler. "You want us to negotiate without being
able to pay anything? What kind of advice is that?" "What
you need," said Fisher, sharing classic HNP advice, "is
a legitimate principle that both sides can live up to, so
that neither has to back down or pay blackmail. Something
like, 'Neither side will ask for nor receive more than that
to which they are entitled.'" "But that's perfectly
reasonable," said Cutler. "Do you have any reason
to believe the Iranians would accept such a principle as the
basis for negotiation?" Fisher: "Are you asking
me to find out?" Cutler: "Let me check with the
State Department."
Several
months passed, during which the United States attempted the
ill-fated rescue mission that failed in a desert sandstorm
with 8 marines killed, former Secretary of State Ramsey Clark
announced his own mediatory mission to Iran against the State
Department's wishes and without their permission, and Fisher
traveled to China for a month as part of a Harvard Law School
delegation. A telling anecdote: In March, the United States
broke diplomatic relations with Iran. An Iranian contact called
Fisher the next day to exclaim, "Don't you know to consult
before taking action?" Fisher reiterated that the U.S.
government did not consult with him before acting. The Iranian's
frustration was evident: "Don't you know the U.S. could
have gotten the hostages released for breaking diplomatic
relations? You think it's a punishment, but here they are
dancing in the streets! They see the U.S. giving up on trying
to control us, which is really most of what we ever wanted!"
In
July of 1980, the State Department finally officially asked
Fisher to see if he could be helpful. By that time, all but
the Foreign Ministry in Iran had come under the control of
Khomeini's Islamic Republican Party (IRP), reducing HNP's
useful contact list. However, our contacts could get us phone
numbers for the Speaker of the Parliament, Ayatollah Rafsanjani,
and the head of the IRP, the Ayatollah Beheshti, reputedly
the brains behind the show. (Beheshti was later killed in
a bomb attack on the Parliament.) Fisher and Patton undertook
a series of phone calls with both, who turned out willing
to talk, being well informed of Fisher's published articles
and activities. In the critical call with Beheshti, after
making clear that he was acting with the knowledge but not
on behalf of the U.S. government, Fisher asked if Iran was
asking for more than that to which it was entitled. The Ayatollah
Beheshti's response in his slow, but good English: "No
one ever asks for more than they think they are entitled to."
Fisher
: "So is Iran prepared to pay its debts?"
Beheshti: "Iran is prepared to pay its just debts."
Fisher: "Fair enough, but what about the resolution of
the Iranian Majlis requiring that all claims must be dropped?"
Beheshti: "That could be a problem."
Fisher: "Well, our understanding is that in some cases
assets have been attached in the U.S. without invoices ever
having been presented."
Beheshti: "That is our understanding as well."
Fisher: "In the U.S., if you sue someone for nonpayment
before officially asking them to pay, that is considered quite
a hostile act."
Beheshti: "Yes, in Iran as well."
Fisher: "So what if we require all claims to be dropped
and then proper invoices to be presented. Iran pays those
that seem just, and others can be arbitrated according to
well-established principles of international commercial arbitration."
Beheshti: "That would be fine. Now what about the things
that Iran is entitled to?"
Fisher: "Like what?"
Beheshti: "First of all, acceptance of the Revolution."
Fisher: "That goes without saying. There is no other
government."
Beheshti: "There was no other government in 1956, when
Kim Roosevelt of the CIA came to Iran, overthrew the democratically
elected government, and returned the Shah to power."
Fisher: "Fair enough. Official acceptance of the Revolution."
Beheshti: "And we want the Americans out."
Fisher: [after a pause] "That sounds like a shared interest."
Beheshti: "Not just the hostages. We want no diplomatic
relations."
Fisher: "That could be a problem. I know the U.S. wants
relations."
Beheshti: "You are a professor of international law.
To what is Iran entitled?"
Fisher: "Under international law, if a country doesn't
want diplomatic relations, it doesn't have to have them."
Beheshti: "Good. We don't want them. So, when can you
come to discuss this further?"
Beheshti
asked for a meeting in his office in four days, but balked
at sponsoring Fisher and Patton's visas. Likewise the Foreign
Ministry - still in "moderate" hands - also refused
to offer visas, knowing the purpose was to assist Beheshti.
Finally it was arranged that the powerful Iranian consul in
Bonn would order the Embassy in Paris to issue visas, and
Patton and Fisher flew to Paris on their way to Tehran. But
in the end the lowly functionary who had to sign the visas
balked at doing so without explicit authorization from the
Foreign Ministry. Fisher and Patton met various Iranians in
Europe, but eventually returned to Cambridge and carried on
their efforts by telephone and telex. In late August, a draft
"one-text" of a possible agreement was sent
to Beheshti and Rafsanjani, not as an offer, and certainly
not as an official offer, but as something concrete to criticize.
The classic HNP question asked, as always, was "What
would be wrong with something like this?"
No
official reply was received. However, less than a week later,
the Ayatollah Khomeini released his "Four Points"
statement specifying the requirements for a resolution of
the conflict, which notably dropped his prior (unacceptable)
demand for an apology from the U.S. Contacts in Iran say that
the HNP draft was shown to Khomeini and precipitated this
statement, but no one knows exactly what he was told. Based
on the "Four Points" announcement, Algeria announced
that it would be prepared to mediate a resolution to the conflict.
Iran and the U.S. both accepted this offer, and Fisher and
Patton immediately met with the Algerian Ambassador to Washington
and transferred their working draft and analysis. This HNP
framework then became the core structure of the final agreement
fleshed out over the succeeding months.
HNP's
efforts largely ended at that point, until the day of the
hostages' release. As the hours ticked on toward the new President
Reagan's inauguration, there was an unexplained delay in the
hostages' release. George Corey, a lawyer for the Bank Markazi
in Iran, telephoned to share his belief that U.S. banks had
added an appendix to the agreed documents requiring Iran to
accept as final the banks' accounting of interest paid on
Iranian assets that had been seized. This was not a simple
matter, and the amount of money involved was potentially quite
large.
Fisher
telephone Lloyd Cutler at the White House and left a message
to call. He then called the Iranian Central Bank in Tehran.
He asked for Mr. Nobari, the head of the Bank, but was told
he was in a meeting. So he asked for Nobari's deputy, Mr.
Monavi-Rad. He too was in a meeting. Fisher asked if it was
the same meeting, and was told it was. He then asked the administrative
assistant if she would take a message into the meeting telling
these gentlemen that he was on the phone. She refused, despite
acknowledging that they would probably want to know, offering
that the last time she had interrupted the meeting she had
been told not to do so again. So Fisher asked if perhaps she
could find someone in the building who had not been told that,
who could take a note into the meeting, and she cheerfully
agreed. Shortly thereafter Mr. Monavi-Rad came to the phone
and confirmed Corey's theory of the holdup. "We've been
meeting all night," he said, "and we don't know
what to do."
While
Fisher was talking to Monavi-Rad, Lloyd Cutler called back
on the other line. Fisher relayed to Cutler what he had learned
and asked him if this appendix was part of the agreement.
Cutler confirmed that it was not, and Fisher relayed this
to Monavi-Rad. Fisher then suggested that, now that the problem
was identified, the two parties communicate officially through
the Algerians and work it out, which they did. In the end,
President Carter ordered that funds be released without a
signature on the disputed appendix, reputedly threatening
to blame the banks publicly if the hostages were not released.
*All
dialogues in this piece are reconstructions, as there are
no recordings or transcripts. However, these narratives have
been told in various forums in virtually these exact terms
from the days they occurred.
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